EU targets Trump’s red states with tariffs on US trucks, cigarettes and ice cream

The EU’s response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose so-called reciprocal tariffs on all of America’s trading partners may be less aggressive than expected, but it does show some creativity in its bid to hit the U.S. where it will hurt the most.

According to an internal document seen by POLITICO, the Commission is considering slapping tariffs of up to 25 percent on a broad range of exports from the U.S. worth around €22.1 billion based on the EU’s 2024 imports.

The list features run-of-the-mill agricultural and industrial commodities such as soybeans, meat, tobacco, iron, steel and aluminum — to hit the American sectors that rely most on transatlantic exports.

Dig deeper, and it turns out the EU’s trade nerds have stirred some unaccustomed creativity into their expert knowledge of obscure customs codes, while channeling a helping of passive aggression to inflict pain on Trump’s base.

EU countries are set to vote on the new duties on Wednesday, with no major opposition expected.

Once they’ve approved the list (which is technically made up of multiple lists), the first set of tariffs on goods such as cranberries or orange juice, which the EU initially imposed in 2018 during the first Trump presidency but suspended in 2021, will take effect on April 15. 

A 25 percent duty will then kick in from May 16 on a second batch of imported items such as steel, meat, white chocolate and polyethylene. Finally, a 25 percent duty on almonds and soybeans will take effect Dec. 1. (Leave it to the Commission to build some suspense.)

Overall, EU duties are set to hit up to $13.5 billion worth of exports from red states, according to POLITICO's analysis of 2024 trade data.

Let’s start with the EU’s No. 1 target — soybeans, the most valuable item on the bloc’s hit list, a product whose economic and symbolic significance for the Republican Party's heartlands cannot be overstated.

The U.S. is the world’s second-largest soybean producer and exporter, and the EU tariffs would hit a sector already battered by China’s retaliatory measures, rising global competition and falling prices. That's not all: 82.5 percent of American soybean exports to the EU come from Louisiana, the home state of House Speaker Mike Johnson.

Unsurprisingly, U.S. soybean producers slammed Trump’s commercial belligerence last month, arguing that “tariffs are not something to be taken lightly” and urging the administration to “reconsider tariffs [against Canada, Mexico and China] and potential upcoming tariffs.” So far, however, the U.S. president has signaled that he was “not looking at” pausing the new tariffs.

The EU is also targeting beef from Kansas and Nebraska, poultry from Louisiana, car parts from Michigan, cigarettes from Florida, and wood products from North Carolina, Georgia and Alabama.

While the Commission ended up dropping whiskey from the final draft after successful lobbying from France, Italy and Ireland, it did include other more niche items designed to cause the greatest pain to exporters in Republican states.

These include (but are not limited to) ice cream from Arizona, handkerchiefs from South Carolina, electric blankets from Alabama, ties and bow ties from Florida (unless they’re made of silk, which Democratic California will be more than happy to provide), and washing machines from Wisconsin.

Pasta from Florida and South Carolina will also face some tariff heat, though Italy will likely be delighted to fill the market gap.

Finally, women’s negligées from Ohio and Kentucky, a fan favorite from the Commission’s first proposal, made the final cut; so did men’s undergarments, although they are mostly found in blue states.

Zooming back

The trade war unleashed by Trump comes with a hefty price for Washington, as Canada and China have responded to the U.S. president’s deluge of duties with their own counter tariffs.

Overall, retaliatory measures imposed by China, Canada and the EU will hit nearly $90 billion of American exports.

Beijing has mainly targeted U.S. produce, slapping a 15 percent duty on commodities like chicken, wheat and corn along with 10 percent on soybeans, meat, fruit and other farm exports. Canada, meanwhile, has imposed two sets of tariffs — 25 percent on a range of agrifood products, and another 25 percent on steel and aluminum products.

For its part, Brussels has experimented with a carrot-and-stick approach to signal it won’t bow to Trump’s demands while leaving the door open to negotiations. On Monday the bloc offered a “zero-for-zero” tariff scheme on industrial goods covering cars, drugs, chemicals, plastics and machinery among other things. 

Trump, however, said the offer fell short and urged EU countries to buy $350 billion worth of American energy products to make the trade deficit “disappear … in one week.”

As a last resort, the bloc could wield its “trade bazooka” to hit U.S. services, which would take the trade war to a whole new level — something not all EU countries are ready to do just yet.